EWP plus
| WarningSubscribeAdd to My...AutoTrade
Hypothetical Monthly Results
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | +41.0% | (6.9%) | +93.6% | (20.5%) | +26.8% | (17%) | +51.1% | +35.1% | +46.6% | (25.7%) | +18.1% | |
| 2009 | +9.9% | +18.5% | +12.0% | +13.3% | +4.8% | +3.8% | (9.4%) | +10.8% | (5%) | - | (12.9%) | (5.9%) |
| 2010 | +11.4% | (8.4%) | (10.5%) |
Drag mouse in chart to zoom |
| Instruments | Futures |
|---|---|
| Strategies | Technical analysis, Market timing |
| System started | 2/1/2008 (26 months ago) |
| System developer |
TheMarketDetective.com Contact
(Last login to C2: 3/12/10 14:40) Vendor has created 4 other systems. Show |
System creator requested that closed trades data below be delayed by one day.
| Opened ET | B/S | # | Symbol | Price | Closed | Price | Risk | P/L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/09 12:04 | SELL | 4 | @ESH0 | 1098.75 | 3/12/10 14:43 | 1149.50 | Extreme | ($10,150) | |
| 10/6/09 9:55 | SELL | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1050.75 | 12/10 12:04 | 1104.00 | Extreme | ($10,650) | |
| 10/5/09 10:05 | SELL | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1027.72 | 10/6 5:13 | 1044.47 | Normal | ($3,348) | |
| 10/5/09 9:44 | BUY | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1028.43 | 10/5 10:02 | 1028.53 | Low | $20 | |
| 10/5/09 8:56 | BUY | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1024.75 | 10/5 9:37 | 1021.78 | Low | ($595) | |
| 10/2/09 14:52 | BUY | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1024.75 | 10/2 15:53 | 1019.00 | Low | ($1,150) | |
| 10/2/09 14:16 | BUY | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1024.25 | 10/2 14:21 | 1024.28 | Low | $5 | |
| 10/2/09 12:59 | BUY | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1022.75 | 10/2 13:53 | 1024.25 | Low | $300 | |
| 10/2/09 12:11 | BUY | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1022.65 | 10/2 12:26 | 1021.75 | Low | ($180) | |
| 10/2/09 10:37 | SELL | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1025.10 | 10/2 10:52 | 1022.10 | Low | $600 | |
| 10/2/09 10:21 | BUY | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1020.60 | 10/2 10:26 | 1023.03 | Low | $485 | |
| 10/2/09 9:45 | BUY | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1017.38 | 10/2 9:55 | 1019.05 | Low | $335 | |
| 10/2/09 8:40 | BUY | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1015.75 | 10/2 8:54 | 1013.05 | Low | ($540) | |
| 10/1/09 15:09 | SELL | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1030.00 | 10/1 15:30 | 1030.65 | Low | ($130) | |
| 10/1/09 14:33 | SELL | 4 | @ESZ9 | 1033.25 | 10/1 14:43 | 1032.75 | Low | $100 |
Statistics
Analytics| Trades | 821 |
|---|---|
| # Profitable | 492 (59.9%) |
| # months tracked | 25 |
| Profitable months | 15 (60.0%) |
| Avg trade duration | 11.5 hours |
| Annual return (compounded) | 144.4% |
| Average win | $690 |
| Average loss | $846 |
| Profit factor | 1.2:1 |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical) | 72.44% |
| drawdown period | June 19, 2008 to July 16, 2008 |
| Correlation w/ S&P | 0.079 |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.113 |
C2Realism Factor  | 100% |
| Keep after worst-case slippage | 97.2% |
| Probabilities of future account loss | |
| Chance of 10% account loss | 80.5% |
| Chance of 20% account loss | 59.5% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 41.9% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 0.2% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 100% account loss | 0.0% |
| Average Profit to Drawdown (APD) | 0.38 |
| Average P/L per unit traded | $31.58 |
Reviews
See AllSystem has changed a few times due to subscriber feedback, and went into idle. Sticking to the system's strategy, one would have missed the past few bullish months, resulting in the broadening the equity curve. Be aware of the chance of loss, it will knock you out of the game, if you don't back your account adequately.
Appears to be abandoned - no trades in over 2 months. Shame as it was a good system based upon Fib/EW analysis. Vendor should shut it down if it's abandoned
Just a couple of weeks ago, most trades would immediately be followed by ever-changing stops, several per trade many times. However, over the past week, the developer seems to have chucked stops out the window. After spending several weeks scalping $20 profits on exceptionally close stops, the past 2 trades have been horrific losers, accounting for a 5-figure loss if you trade the recommended lots. I exited the most recent position with a loss that hurt, but not as much as those still holding on. Turned off Autotrade, will review for the next month of paid subscription to see if the developer is able to get back to winning ways.
The system is experiencing a trading method change. both profit target and stop loss has widened dramatically. I paused my autotrade for now, and watch for several trades and see. one side note is that past performance may not be a good reference due to the method change.
The trader gives the impression that he is clinging to big losses. Every once in a while a trade is made and no stop is set - or the stop is even removed - without further stops and then we have a big loss.. then a number of small trades are made winning, then again a loss. It seems the provider is sometimes simply not accepting that some trades do not work out as planned. Moreover, it seems the system was strongly changed since it is FOR profit - so watch out. It was for free until it hit 1 Mio then it was rescaled by 1:10 and since then it has not generated any profit any more!! it goes up and down below the break-even.. So, since then only fees, no return.. The provider actually fine wrt. communication. Though there are some who are communicating more - and more regularly.
Trading 1 contract since June 09. Ignoring July hit, since Aug. 1 churn has made performance disappointing. 52 trades with unavoidable cost of clearing $1.16/side and C2 system fee of $1.99 and $89/month subscription has generated over $460 in fees vs $820 in profit (trading 1 contract). Burning cash waiting for slump to end.
This guy really knows how to read the S&P charts and time the waves. His past drawdowns are a little scary, so I trade with less leverage than on C2. I rode out the July drawdown figuring that he would get back on course, which it seems he has. My only reason for not giving 5-stars is that it seemed like he rode out a couple of big losing trades in July instead of cutting his losses short.
Fair. Due to popular demand I now place stop orders immediately upon placing a trade.
System Description
Twitter commentary and analysis is available at @marketdetective
and http//blog.themarketdetective.com/
This is a combination of a discretionary and a nondiscretionary system. The nondiscretionary component is entries and exits based on Fibonacci ratios measured from either the beginning or end of Elliott wave counts. The discretionary component is identifying the beginning and end of wave counts.
- This system description was provided by the system developer. Collective2 has not verified it.
